At present, the strong increase in the market for many consecutive days has caused heated discussions in the market. The following is an interpretation of the overall logic behind this strong increase.
1. On the supply side: phenological abnormalities superimposed on the diversion of raw materials from the thick milk factory, and a foregone conclusion of the reduction in delivery
This year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the lack of maintenance of rubber forests, powdery mildew and drought, delayed the growth of new leaves of rubber trees in China, which caused large-scale delays in the opening of domestic production areas. The main production areas of Yunnan and Hainan generally postpone the delay for 50-60 days about. After entering June, the production area has been opened one after another. Due to the shortage of glue workers and the low glue price, the release of fresh glue has been slow; at the same time, the demand for natural latex is good this year, and the production profit of the processing plant is considerable. raw material. This year, the increase in concentrated milk and the decrease in whole milk are the general trend. The price difference between full latex and concentrated latex has led to the adjustment of the production structure of processing plants to a certain extent. Due to the difference in production technology and processing costs, the price difference between the two is basically 1500 yuan/ Ton level. From January to September 2020, the average price difference between whole milk and concentrated milk at the dry price is around 2,426 yuan/ton. This year, the current glue in the Hainan production area in China is basically used for the processing and production of concentrated latex; the new Yunmeng latex in the Yunnan production area The glue purchase price of the factory is 200-500 yuan/ton higher than that of the whole milk processing factory. In the first three quarters of this year, some of the whole latex raw materials in Yunnan will be diverted.
Entering the third quarter, continuous rain in Yunnan and typhoon weather in Hainan have affected the overall output rate of raw materials. In addition, the release of substitute indicators this year was postponed to the end of August, and shortly after the release, Yunnan Ruili received overseas imports, which affected the inflow of substitute indicators to a certain extent, and the overall tightness of raw materials continued. Starting from the end of September, the weather in Yunnan has gradually become normal, and the release of raw materials in the production areas has stabilized. However, Yunnan will face a shutdown in mid-to-late November. Even if the processing plant starts at full capacity, it will be difficult to make up for the loss in the entire second and third quarters. In Hainan, affected by the double typhoons, the raw material output in the region is scarce, and the thick milk factory has a processing profit, and actively snapped up glue production. It is reported that the glue purchase price is around 16,000 yuan/ton, and the processing plants in the area are still producing thick milk. the Lord. Therefore, Zhuo Chuang predicts that the domestic production for the whole year of this year is expected to be around 700,000 tons, a decrease of about 15% from last year’s 815,000 tons; it is expected that the production of whole milk for delivery this year will be reduced by about 80,000 to 100,000 tons, down by about 30% year-on-year.
Post time: Oct-28-2020